During first decade of March 2014 they sent abroad by ship 503,6 thousand t of grain and during first decade of previous month its sea export made 887,1 thousand tons

Till now grain export speed from Ukraine was record high and the export itself this season according to information of Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food exceeded rate of 25 mln t.

The results of current cereals transshipment by national ports, known as of today to informational company “ProAgro”, allow if not affirm then suppose that in the nearest perspective the speed of national agroexport may start falling. The probable reason may appear to be continuous social and political crisis in Ukraine, and face-off in Crimea affects lightly grain export shipment process.

Upon preliminary data got by informational company “ProAgro” from sources in ports, during first decade of March 2014 they sent abroad by ship 503,6 thousand tons of grain and during first decade of previous month its sea export made 887,1 thousand tons. Thus reduction of foreign-trade cereals supplies made over 380 thousand tons.

The significance of this reduction may be illustrated by data of sea cereals export during February and January 2014. Thus, last month they supplied abroad by ship 2217 thousand tons of grain and in January – 2433,2 thousand tons correspondingly. This means that monthly reduction of export volume in February was less than reduction during just one decade of March. And this reduction cannot be explained by pure decrease of cereals stocks of manufacturers and season fall of export volume.

The picture of grain shipment in ports is more anxious. According preliminary data during first decade of March Khersonskiy, Nikolayevskiy and Sevastopolskiy sea ports sent none a ton of grain for export. And transshipment volume in Dnepro-Bugskiy port during this period decreased almost three times (33 thousand tons comparing to 83,9 thousand tons for first decade of February 2014), Reny port – almost twice, for 53,7% - “Yuzhniy” sea port and for 10% by Illichevskiy port. The only port which increased export shipment in first decade of March was Odesskiy one; they processed 155 thousand tons of grain comparing to 81 thousand tons for the period of February 1-10, 2014.

At the same time the provided data are preliminary and may be elaborated later on. Thus, 10-days period is not very representative for comparison because before the end of the month exporters and port workers may make up leeway volumes. Meanwhile, the fixed decrease of export supply looks anxious but logical. In condition of reasonable devaluation of national currency manufacturers and grain owners reduced its supply for inner market down to minimum, expecting for further development of situation. At present time economies and farmers set out small car parties of grain for minimal replenishment of floating assets. Such parties are not interesting for exporters who prefer to buy grain in big volume.

Thus, not the situation in ports or Crimea peninsula but decrease of grain supply from inner market to ports may be the main reason for export development breaking. The parties of grain proposed in ports find their purchaser fast – export demand is still high.

Earlier our colleagues and we informed on worry of western traders on possible reduction of cereals supplies from Ukraine due to escalation of conflict at Crimea peninsula. The conflict caused sharp heightening of exchange rates for cereals and oil-bearing at world future exchanges on certain days.

Traders’ worries were connected not only to possible break in cereals export logistics of Ukraine but also to possible default on contracts due to hryvna devaluation and deterrence of grain sale by manufacturers who wait for higher price.

But there is also good news. In the first decade of March sea export of sunflower oil increased up to 99,9 thousand tons that is 12,4% more than during first 10 days of last month. But one should note that foreign-trade operations “revived” export price rising – thus, during last two weeks raw sunflower oil at FOB Black Sea ports increased in price for $50/t.

We suppose that if in March-April home-policy situation has no escalation and hryvna course becomes stable, grain and other crops export will come to ordinary channel. The spring field campaign needs significant financial resources and this will stimulate grain sales both at inner and foreign market.

Source Delo